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Excellent post Brian, thank you for sharing. I like the lens through which you are putting the current discourse.

It's hard to tell where AI the tech is in the those curves, but as far as I'm concerned, the public discourse is definitely at the peak of the hype cycle. See https://mokagio.substack.com/p/beware-the-ai-apocalypse-prophecies.

The conclusion is also inspiring: AI value to individual consumers is, currently, directly proportional to the effort they put into it. The idea resonates. I concluded my TDD with Copilot guide, https://github.com/readme/guides/github-copilot-automattic, saying:

> Armed with an excavator, you'll dig a hole faster than with a shovel. But you need to know how to operate the machine before you can safely start digging. Likewise, AI can help you write code faster, but doing so effectively requires you to learn how to use it.

I also think the AI as enabler perspective is the only productive way to look at this (and any other) technology. Love the fire -> cooking analogy. If you indulge another self-plug, in "What happens when publishing apps is as easy as sharing videos?", https://mokagio.substack.com/p/what-happens-when-publishing-apps, I came to a similar conclusion.

> Generative AIs could do to programming what WordPress and YouTube did to publishing. They could remove the barrier to entry and give anyone with access to the internet a shot at making their ideas concrete. [...]

>

> Imagine what could happen if anyone could get their app ideas into the world. Imagine how much time could be saved if anyone who needed to automate a mundane task could write a script for it. Imagine all the untapped potential that could be unleashed and all the progress it would generate.

Thanks for sharing. Keep up the great work!

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Thanks! Appreciate the support. I have just subscribed to your substack as well! Good stuff!

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